See the Starting Lineup for Pirates vs Nationals – September 14, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals host the Pittsburgh Pirates on September 14, 2025, both teams are looking to snap out of their disappointing seasons. The Nationals, with a record of 61-87, are struggling in the 4th spot in the National League East, while the Pirates sit at 65-84, also in the 4th position, this time in the Central. In their last encounter, the Nationals fell to the Pirates by a score of 5-1, a result that underscores the challenges both teams face as the season winds down.

The Nationals are projected to start Cade Cavalli, who holds a Win/Loss record of 3-1 this year and an ERA of 4.67. While Cavalli’s advanced stats suggest he may have been unlucky this season, his projection of 4.9 innings pitched with 2.3 earned runs allowed indicates some inefficiency. Conversely, the Pirates will counter with Michael Burrows, whose 3.99 ERA is a positive sign for Pittsburgh. Burrows has a solid innings pitched projection of 4.3, but both pitchers could struggle against offenses that rank near the bottom of MLB in various categories.

The Nationals rank as the 24th best offense and the 26th in home runs, further complicating their chances against Burrows. The Pirates, unfortunately, sit last in MLB offensive rankings, making it difficult for them to capitalize on any pitching errors. Interestingly, the Nationals have shown some speed on the base paths, ranking 8th in stolen bases, which could be a factor if they find themselves on base frequently.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, this matchup might yield a lower-scoring affair. Despite their struggles, the Nationals have an implied team total of 4.15 runs, giving them a slight edge in expectations. A closer look at the projections indicates a better outlook for the Nationals today, which may translate into a surprising performance against the Pirates.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Michael Burrows – Over/Under 11.5 Pitching Outs (-170/+130)
  Mike Burrows has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 15.7 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Oneil Cruz has been unlucky this year, notching a .298 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .351 — a .053 deviation.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in the future
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Cade Cavalli – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Due to his reverse platoon split, Cade Cavalli will be at a disadvantage matching up with 6 hitters in the projected lineup who share his hand in this matchup.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Daylen Lile – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Daylen Lile is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  The Washington Nationals bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 68 of their last 120 games (+11.62 Units / 8% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 83 of their last 137 games (+23.90 Units / 15% ROI)
• James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)
  James Wood has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+7.60 Units / 25% ROI)