San Diego Padres
Los Angeles Dodgers
(-110/-110)-150
The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres continue their National League Division Series matchup on October 6, 2024, at Dodger Stadium. With the Dodgers holding a 1-0 series lead after a 7-5 victory on October 5, they aim to capitalize on their momentum. This series is a showcase of top-tier talent, with both teams boasting powerful offenses and elite bullpens. The Dodgers, with the league’s top offense, face off against the Padres, who rank 6th in offensive prowess.
On the mound, the Dodgers will start Jack Flaherty, who is ranked as the 69th best starting pitcher in MLB. Flaherty has a solid 13-7 record with a stellar 3.17 ERA this season, although his projections for this game are less impressive, with an expected 4.8 innings pitched and 2.6 earned runs allowed. The Padres counter with Yu Darvish, ranked closely at 71st, with a 7-3 record and a 3.31 ERA. However, Darvish’s xFIP of 3.99 suggests he’s been somewhat fortunate this season, and he might be due for regression.
Both pitchers face challenging matchups. Flaherty, a high-strikeout pitcher, goes against a Padres lineup that strikes out the least in MLB. Meanwhile, Darvish, a high-flyball pitcher, takes on a Dodgers offense that ranks 3rd in home runs, potentially turning his flyballs into homers. Despite these challenges, Darvish’s low walk rate could counterbalance the Dodgers’ patient approach at the plate.
The Dodgers are favored, with a moneyline of -140 and an implied win probability of 56%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives them a slightly higher win probability of 58%, projecting a high-scoring affair with the Dodgers scoring 5.55 runs on average. The Padres, with a moneyline of +120, have a projected win probability of 42% and are expected to score 5.00 runs. This game promises to be a thrilling continuation of a closely contested series.
San Diego Padres Insights
- San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+125)Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense belongs to the San Diego Padres.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Jack Flaherty – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+110/-140)Compared to the average starter, Jack Flaherty has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an extra 6.6 adjusted pitches each game.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Max Muncy is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of San Diego (#2-best of all teams on the slate).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-150)The best projected lineup of all teams today in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 79 games (+20.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+125)The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 84 games (+17.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+310/-450)Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 17 games (+22.20 Units / 131% ROI)