San Francisco Giants
St. Louis Cardinals
(-110/-110)+110
As the St. Louis Cardinals host the San Francisco Giants on September 6, 2025, both teams find themselves in a tight race for positioning, with the Cardinals at 70-72 and the Giants at 72-69. The Cardinals are currently not contending for a playoff spot, and their recent performance has been average, while the Giants are also having a mediocre season. Yesterday, the Giants took the first game of this series, which sets the stage for a critical matchup today.
Andre Pallante is projected to take the mound for St. Louis. He has struggled this season, posting a 6-13 record with a 5.38 ERA, which indicates a challenging year overall. However, his 4.02 xFIP suggests that he has faced some bad luck, and he may perform better than his surface stats imply. Pallante projects to pitch around 5.3 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs, but his averages of 5.3 hits and 1.9 walks allowed are alarming.
On the other side, Justin Verlander will start for the Giants. With a 3-10 record and a 4.29 ERA, Verlander has also had his fair share of difficulties, but his 3.73 FIP indicates he might be due for a turnaround. He is projected to pitch slightly longer than Pallante, with averages suggesting 5.5 innings and 2.5 earned runs allowed.
Offensively, the Cardinals rank 23rd in MLB, and their lack of power is concerning, especially against a high-flyball pitcher like Verlander. Their 136 home runs this season are among the lowest in the league. Conversely, the Giants, although slightly better at 20th, have struggled to find consistency, ranking 25th in batting average.
With the game total set at 8.5 runs and the Cardinals holding a moneyline of +110, expectations are for a close matchup. There may be opportunities for bettors to find value if Pallante can outperform his projections and if St. Louis can capitalize on any mistakes made by Verlander.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Justin Verlander – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)Justin Verlander’s slider usage has risen by 10.6% from last season to this one (19.3% to 29.9%) .Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Dominic Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)Dominic Smith is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the St. Louis Cardinals has just 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Justin Verlander – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)Patrick Bailey, the Giants’s expected catcher in today’s game, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)In his previous GS, Andre Pallante was in good form and conceded 2 ER.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Extreme flyball hitters like Nolan Gorman tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Justin Verlander.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- St. Louis Cardinals hitters jointly have been one of the best in the league this year (9th-) when assessing their 89.5-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Betting Trends
- St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-150/+115)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 59 of their last 101 games (+11.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 28 away games (+12.75 Units / 39% ROI)
- Rafael Devers – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+390/-590)Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 9 games (+11.35 Units / 126% ROI)