See the Starting Lineup for Blue Jays vs Yankees – April 25, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays on April 25, 2025, at Yankee Stadium, both teams find themselves in contrasting situations. The Yankees, with a solid record of 15-10, are riding high on their performance, currently leading the American League East. In contrast, the Blue Jays are struggling at 12-13, putting them near the bottom of the division. This matchup is significant as it marks the first game in the series between these two rivals.

In their most recent game, the Yankees showcased their offensive prowess, dominating their opponent with a strong performance. Their batting lineup ranks 2nd in MLB, boasting an impressive 1st place in home runs. They face a Blue Jays pitching staff that has struggled, with both projected starters, Carlos Carrasco and Jose Berrios, ranked among the lower tier of MLB pitchers. Carrasco, projected to start for the Yankees, has a Win/Loss record of 2-1 and a troubling ERA of 6.53, suggesting he has been unlucky this season. However, his xFIP of 4.69 projects a potential for better outcomes moving forward.

Jose Berrios, on the other hand, has a record of 1-1 with a 5.02 ERA. His matchup against a high-strikeout Yankees offense could play to his advantage, as he has managed to generate a decent strikeout rate of 19.8%. However, he will need to improve his performance against a powerful lineup that has been hitting exceptionally well.

With a Game Total of 9.5 runs, this matchup promises excitement, and the Yankees are favored with a moneyline of -130, reflecting confidence in their strong offense against a struggling Blue Jays team.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Jose Berrios – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Jose Berrios’s 92.1-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.4-mph decrease from last season’s 93.5-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.8-mph to 101.2-mph in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Anthony Santander pulls many of his flyballs (39.4% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 6th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)
  Carlos Carrasco is an extreme groundball pitcher (44.3% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #3 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Aaron Judge has had positive variance on his side this year. His .518 rate has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .403.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• The underlying talent of the New York Yankees projected lineup today (.335 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal worse than their .348 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 25 games (+4.95 Units / 14% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (-170)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 23 games (+4.60 Units / 13% ROI)
• Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+140/-180)
  Alejandro Kirk has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+6.80 Units / 28% ROI)