See the Starting Lineup for Blue Jays vs Yankees – April 25, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

@

New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays prepare for their matchup on April 25, 2025, at Yankee Stadium, both teams are coming off contrasting performances. The Yankees are riding high after a convincing 5-1 win on April 23, while the Blue Jays fell short, losing 3-1 in their last game. This American League East clash features two teams with differing trajectories this season; the Yankees boast a solid 15-10 record, while the Blue Jays sit at 12-13, struggling to find their footing.

On the mound, the Yankees are projected to start Carlos Carrasco, who has had a rocky season thus far with a 2-1 record and a troubling ERA of 6.53. Despite being ranked as the 302nd best starting pitcher in MLB, Carrasco’s underlying metrics suggest he could improve, given his 4.67 xFIP. However, he faces a Blue Jays lineup that has been less than explosive, ranking 22nd in overall offense and a dismal 29th in home runs.

Conversely, Jose Berrios will take the hill for Toronto. His 1-1 record and 5.02 ERA reflect his own struggles, but projections indicate he could fare better against a Yankees offense that has the 3rd most strikeouts in MLB. Berrios’s ability to limit runs will be crucial against a Yankees lineup that ranks 2nd in overall offense and leads the league in home runs.

With the Yankees holding the edge in recent form and offensive power, they are favored in this matchup. The projections indicate a high implied team total of 4.71 runs for New York, while Toronto’s sits at 4.29 runs, highlighting the expected competitive nature of this game.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Jose Berrios – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Jose Berrios’s 92.1-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.4-mph decrease from last season’s 93.5-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.8-mph to 101.2-mph in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Anthony Santander pulls many of his flyballs (39.4% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 6th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  Carlos Carrasco is an extreme groundball pitcher (44.3% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #3 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Typically, hitters like Aaron Judge who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Jose Berrios.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The underlying talent of the New York Yankees projected lineup today (.335 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal worse than their .348 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 25 games (+4.95 Units / 14% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (-160)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 23 games (+4.60 Units / 13% ROI)
• Bo Bichette – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-120/-110)
  Bo Bichette has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.20 Units / 25% ROI)