
Detroit Tigers
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Cleveland Guardians
-170O/U: 6
(-110/-110)+150
(-110/-110)+150
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)With 7 batters who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Tarik Skubal encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Parker Meadows – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)Parker Meadows is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Detroit Tigers – 2H MoneylineThe Detroit Tigers bullpen ranks as the worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Gavin Williams – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)Among all starters, Gavin Williams’s fastball velocity of 96 mph grades out in the 89th percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Angel Martinez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Angel Martinez has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87-mph dropping to 79.1-mph in the past week’s worth of games.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (43% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 6.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 71 of their last 125 games (+17.40 Units / 13% ROI)
- Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 85 of their last 156 games (+10.10 Units / 6% ROI)
- Steven Kwan – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+9.85 Units / 48% ROI)
