
St. Louis Cardinals

Milwaukee Brewers
(-120/+100)-180
As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to face off against the St. Louis Cardinals on September 13, 2025, the stakes are high in this National League Central matchup. The Brewers, sitting at 90-58, are enjoying a strong season and are in contention for a playoff spot. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are at 72-76, having struggled throughout the year and currently sitting outside postseason hopes.
In their last encounter, the Brewers emerged victorious, showcasing their offensive prowess. With a lineup that ranks 9th in MLB and boasts the 3rd best team batting average, Milwaukee’s hitters are in a prime position to capitalize on the day’s matchup. The projections for today’s game suggest that they could score around 4.18 runs, which aligns with their strong offensive capabilities.
On the mound, Jacob Misiorowski, who has a Win/Loss record of 5-2 and an ERA of 4.09, is projected to face Sonny Gray, who is having a solid season with a 13-8 record and an ERA of 4.45. Misiorowski’s 3.18 xFIP indicates some bad luck, suggesting he might improve as the season progresses. However, his projections show he may struggle with walks, which could be less impactful against a Cardinals offense that ranks 6th least in walks drawn.
Conversely, Gray is known for his high strikeout rate, but he faces a Brewers lineup that ranks 4th least in strikeouts. This dynamic could present an advantage for Milwaukee’s hitters, as they may be able to put the ball in play more often against Gray.
The Brewers are favored with a moneyline of -165, reflecting their stronger season and the home-field advantage at American Family Field. As the teams clash in this critical game, the Brewers look to build on their recent success and capitalize on their favorable matchup against the Cardinals.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Sonny Gray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)Sonny Gray’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.1 mph this year (91.2 mph) below where it was last year (92.3 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)Milwaukee’s #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Nolan Gorman, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- St. Louis Cardinals – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals’ bullpen grades out as the 7th-best among all MLB teams.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Jacob Misiorowski – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+135/-180)Jacob Misiorowski has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 10.1 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-205)In the past week’s worth of games, William Contreras’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.8% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)Jackson Chourio hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-180)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 90 of their last 145 games (+28.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+105/-135)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 51 games (+9.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- Ivan Herrera – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+640/-1300)Ivan Herrera has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+19.40 Units / 194% ROI)
