See the Score for Cardinals vs Braves Game – July 20th, 2024

St. Louis Cardinals

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Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals are set to face off in the second game of a double-header on July 20, 2024, at Truist Park. The Braves, who currently hold a 53-42 record, are having a good season and are looking to continue their winning ways after defeating the San Diego Padres 6-3 on July 14. The Cardinals, with a 50-46 record, are having an above-average season but are coming off an 8-3 loss to the Chicago Cubs.

This National League matchup features Bryce Elder starting for the Braves and Sonny Gray taking the mound for the Cardinals. Elder, a right-handed pitcher, has struggled this season with a 5.71 ERA and a 1-3 record in his seven starts. However, his 4.57 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and might see better results moving forward. Elder projects to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, striking out 4.5 batters, and issuing 1.7 walks on average. His high groundball rate (52%) could neutralize the Cardinals’ low-power offense, which ranks 25th in MLB in home runs.

Gray, also a right-hander, has been stellar this season with a 3.34 ERA and a 9-6 record over 17 starts. His 2.76 xFIP indicates he has been slightly unlucky as well. Gray projects to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, striking out 6.0 batters, and issuing 1.6 walks on average. He faces a Braves offense that ranks 14th in MLB, with notable power, ranking 10th in home runs but struggling with walks.

Both bullpens are strong, with the Braves ranked 7th and the Cardinals 5th in bullpen power rankings. This game is expected to be a close contest, with current betting odds giving the Cardinals a slight edge at -120 (52% implied win probability) compared to the Braves at +100 (48% implied win probability). THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects this as an evenly matched game, giving both teams a 50% win probability.

With the Braves’ offense slightly outperforming the Cardinals and Elder’s potential for better future performance, this game is set to be a tightly contested battle. Keep an eye on Marcell Ozuna and Alec Burleson, the best hitters for the Braves and Cardinals respectively, as they could be pivotal in determining the outcome.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Nolan Arenado has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (88% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Lars Nootbaar hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 5th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Marcell Ozuna has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.3-mph to 97.4-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Atlanta Braves have been the unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 74 games (+24.55 Units / 30% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.65 Units / 46% ROI)
• Michael Siani – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1400/-15000)
  Michael Siani has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 away games (+13.00 Units / 325% ROI)