See the Score for Astros vs Brewers Game – May 6th, 2025

Houston Astros

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Milwaukee Brewers

On May 6, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Houston Astros at American Family Field for the second game of their interleague series. The Brewers enter this matchup with a record of 18-18, while the Astros sit at 17-17, indicating that both teams are having average seasons. In their previous game on May 5, the Brewers secured a solid 5-1 victory, showcasing their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities, while the Astros struggled, suffering the same scoreline against them.

The Brewers are projected to start Chad Patrick, who has been a mixed bag this season. Despite his impressive ERA of 2.87, advanced metrics suggest he could be due for regression, as his 4.47 xFIP indicates he may not be as effective going forward. Patrick’s recent performance was uneventful, as he pitched 6 innings with 3 earned runs in his last start. He is projected to pitch around 5.6 innings today, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs, 5.1 hits, and 1.3 walks.

On the other side, the Astros will counter with Hayden Wesneski, who has a solid ERA of 3.86 and is considered an average pitcher by the projections. Wesneski’s last outing saw him pitch 5 innings with 2 earned runs, and he is expected to allow 2.5 earned runs today as well.

Offensively, the Brewers rank 21st in the league, struggling particularly with home runs, ranking 23rd. However, they excel in stolen bases, sitting 2nd overall. The Astros, meanwhile, are also lacking in power, ranking 22nd in home runs and 20th in overall offense. Given the close odds, with Milwaukee favored at -130, this game could be a tightly contested battle, especially with the Brewers looking to build on their recent success.

Houston Astros Insights

• Hayden Wesneski – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Given that groundball batters have a significant edge over flyball pitchers, Hayden Wesneski and his 35.4% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a troublesome spot in today’s matchup being matched up with 3 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Cam Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Cam Smith’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.8% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Brendan Rodgers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Brendan Rodgers hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Chad Patrick – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  With 8 hitters who share his hand in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Chad Patrick figures to benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Joey Ortiz’s average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 87.8-mph figure last year has dropped off to 82.9-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Collectively, Milwaukee Brewers batters have done poorly as far as hitting balls in the launch angle span that tends to result the most in home runs (between 23° and 34°), ranking worst in the majors.
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 30 games (+7.15 Units / 19% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Run Line +1.5 (-190)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 13 of their last 23 games (+5.00 Units / 18% ROI)
• Christian Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+8.15 Units / 23% ROI)