
Los Angeles Angels
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Miami Marlins
+135O/U: 7.5
(+105/-125)-155
(+105/-125)-155
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Walbert Urena – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)Due to his reverse platoon split, Walbert Urena should be in good shape going up against 6 bats in the projected batting order who bat from the opposite side in today’s matchup.Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Zach Neto – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Zach Neto pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.8% — 94th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)Sandy Alcantara was rolling in his previous start and gave up 0 ER.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Heriberto Hernandez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)Heriberto Hernandez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (74% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- The Miami Marlins have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Griffin Conine, Owen Caissie, Kyle Stowers).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+105/-125)The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+9.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+105/-125)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 50 games (+13.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- Moises Ballesteros – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)Moises Ballesteros has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+7.45 Units / 22% ROI)
