See the Odds and Betting Tips for Twins vs Astros – June 13th, 2025

Minnesota Twins

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Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros prepare to take on the Minnesota Twins at Minute Maid Park on June 13, 2025, both teams are in the thick of an engaging series opener. The Astros, holding a record of 38-30, are having a solid season and currently sit in the middle of the playoff race, while the Twins at 36-32 are enjoying an above-average campaign. Notably, Chris Paddack, the Twins’ projected starter, recently threw a complete game shutout, showcasing his potential.

In this matchup, the Astros will send Colton Gordon to the mound, who has had a challenging season. With a 1-1 record and a troubling 5.11 ERA, Gordon ranks as the 163rd best starting pitcher out of approximately 350 in Major League Baseball. Despite this, his 3.28 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could improve. Gordon projects to pitch around 4.8 innings, allowing approximately 2.7 earned runs and striking out 3.8 batters. These numbers indicate he may struggle against the Twins’ offense.

Conversely, Paddack, though also deemed below average, has a more favorable ERA of 3.53. While he has a low strikeout rate (17.9 K%), he faces an Astros lineup that ranks 5th in terms of limiting strikeouts. This matchup could see Paddack capitalizing on his strengths, especially given the Astros’ average ranking as the 16th best offense in MLB.

With betting markets viewing this as a close contest, the Astros have a slight edge with a moneyline of -120 and an average implied team total of 4.10 runs. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, signaling expectations for a competitive game. As both teams vie for crucial wins, this series opener promises an intriguing battle for bettors and fans alike.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Chris Paddack – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Chris Paddack’s higher utilization percentage of his fastball this season (50.8 vs. 42.9% last season) is not ideal consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
  Matt Wallner is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Minnesota’s 91.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs makes them the #26 offense in the league this year by this metric.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Houston Astros Insights

• Colton Gordon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Out of all SPs, Colton Gordon’s fastball spin rate of 2045 rpm ranks in the 7th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mauricio Dubon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Mauricio Dubon has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.5-mph dropping to 78.2-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 51 games (+9.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Run Line -1.0 (+115)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 57 games (+9.90 Units / 14% ROI)
• Brendan Rodgers – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+135/-175)
  Brendan Rodgers has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 67% ROI)