
Cincinnati Reds
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St. Louis Cardinals
-110O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-110
(-110/-110)-110
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Hunter Greene – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)Hunter Greene’s 98.1-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 99th percentile among all starting pitchers.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- JJ Bleday – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)JJ Bleday is apt to have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the St. Louis Cardinals has just 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)Eugenio Suarez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.7% — 95th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Andre Pallante – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)Recording 91.5 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Andre Pallante checks in at the 76th percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Bryan Torres – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Extreme flyball batters like Bryan Torres are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Greene.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- The St. Louis Cardinals (19.1 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 2nd-least strikeout-prone group of batters of all teams on the slate today.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+7.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 30 games (+4.90 Units / 14% ROI)
- Nathan Church – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-150/+115)Nathan Church has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.85 Units / 56% ROI)
