Best Player Prop Bets for Padres vs Marlins - Friday, July 24th, 2026

+100O/U: 9
(-110/-110)-120

German Marquez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
German Marquez’s four-seam fastball utilization has increased by 5.5% from last year to this one (32.1% to 37.6%) .
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
Gavin Sheets – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
Gavin Sheets has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (68% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
The San Diego Padres bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Ryan Gusto – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
Among all SPs, Ryan Gusto’s fastball spin rate of 2417 rpm ranks in the 81st percentile this year.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Heriberto Hernandez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
Heriberto Hernandez has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.5-mph to 98.7-mph in the last week’s worth of games.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Heriberto Hernandez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
Heriberto Hernandez pulls many of his flyballs (44% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+8.60 Units / 20% ROI)
San Diego Padres – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 away games (+4.25 Units / 36% ROI)
Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 42% ROI)

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