Score Updates for Nationals vs Orioles – 5/18/25

Washington Nationals

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to face off against the Washington Nationals on May 18, 2025, both teams are struggling in the standings. The Orioles sit at 15-29, while the Nationals are slightly better at 20-27. The matchup takes on additional significance as it marks the third game in this interleague series. In their previous encounter, the Orioles fell short, adding pressure for a bounce-back performance at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Projected starters Zach Eflin for the Orioles and Mike Soroka for the Nationals present an intriguing contrast. Eflin comes into this game with a solid 3-1 record and a commendable ERA of 3.13, despite having a xFIP of 4.44, indicating he may be due for some regression. He projects to pitch 6.0 innings with an average of 2.6 earned runs, 4.5 strikeouts, and an alarming 5.9 hits allowed. Despite the concerns about his peripherals, Eflin is ranked as the 52nd best starter in MLB, showcasing his potential.

Conversely, Soroka has struggled this season, sitting at 0-2 with a troubling ERA of 6.43 and a more favorable xFIP of 3.47. He projects to pitch 4.9 innings and allow 2.6 earned runs, but with concerns over his ability to manage walks—projected at 1.9 per game—he could be in for a tough outing against an Orioles offense that ranks 22nd in the league.

The betting lines reflect a notable confidence in the Orioles, who are favored at -170. The projections suggest the Orioles could put up an impressive 5.34 runs, while the Nationals are expected to score around 4.16 runs. With both teams in need of a decisive victory, this game offers a critical opportunity for the Orioles to improve their standing as they look for redemption against the Nationals.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mike Soroka – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Mike Soroka’s fastball velocity has increased 1.8 mph this season (93.8 mph) over where it was last season (92 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Typically, hitters like Josh Bell who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Zach Eflin.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The 7.9% Barrel% of the Washington Nationals ranks them as the #21 team in baseball this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-165)
  Zach Eflin is an extreme groundball pitcher (44.6% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Oriole Park at Camden Yards — the #3 HR venue in MLB — in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+195/-265)
  Jackson Holliday has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (84% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Ryan Mountcastle has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards baseball’s shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 41 games (+13.50 Units / 28% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 away games (+8.00 Units / 39% ROI)
• Dylan Crews – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+105/-135)
  Dylan Crews has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.50 Units / 43% ROI)