Score Updates for Braves vs Marlins – 6/22/25

Atlanta Braves

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins host the Atlanta Braves on June 22, 2025, both teams are looking to capitalize on a crucial National League East matchup. The Braves, currently sitting in fourth place in the division, have struggled this season with a 35-40 record, while the Marlins linger in fifth at 30-45. This game is pivotal as both teams seek to gain momentum in the midst of disappointing seasons.

In their previous contest, the Braves took the series opener 7-2, marking a solid outing for their lineup. However, the Marlins will aim to bounce back with Sandy Alcantara on the mound. Despite his #54 rank in Power Rankings, Alcantara has had a tumultuous season with a 3-8 record and a troubling 6.88 ERA. The projections suggest that he may experience some improvement, as his xFIP of 4.46 indicates he has been somewhat unlucky.

The Braves will counter with Bryce Elder, who has posted a 2-3 record and an average 4.45 ERA. Elder is known for generating ground balls (52% GB rate), which could be beneficial against a Marlins offense that lacks power, ranking 26th in home runs this season.

Offensively, the Marlins rank 20th overall, but interestingly, they hold the 12th spot in team batting average. In contrast, the Braves’ offense ranks 17th in all key categories, pointing to a relatively equal matchup on that front. However, the Braves have a high implied team total of 4.54 runs, indicating confidence in their lineup’s ability to generate offense.

With the game total set at an average 8.5 runs and the Marlins positioned as underdogs with a moneyline of +120, this matchup offers intriguing betting opportunities as both teams look to find their footing.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Bryce Elder – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Given that flyball hitters are less effective against flyball pitchers, Bryce Elder (48.9% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today’s game with 4 FB hitters in the opposing club’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Sean Murphy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Over the last two weeks, Sean Murphy’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.5% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  In today’s game, Ozzie Albies is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 4th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39.4% rate (98th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  Considering the 2.86 disparity between Sandy Alcantara’s 6.88 ERA and his 4.02 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the majors this year and ought to see better results the rest of the season.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Xavier Edwards’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 87.1-mph average last season has fallen off to 84.7-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• It may be best to expect weaker performance for the Miami Marlins offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 6th-luckiest offense in the league this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 24 games (+11.50 Units / 41% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 72 games (+9.55 Units / 12% ROI)
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+130/-170)
  Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 away games (+14.10 Units / 39% ROI)