New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
(-110/-110)-120
The Philadelphia Phillies will host the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park on September 11, 2025, in the fourth game of their series. This matchup is critical for both teams as they battle for position in the National League East. The Phillies currently sit at 86-60, enjoying a strong season, while the Mets are at 76-70, maintaining an above-average record. In their last encounter, the Phillies decisively defeated the Mets 11-3, showcasing their powerful offense.
Starting for Philadelphia is Jesus Luzardo, who ranks as the 33rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. Luzardo has had a solid season with a 13-6 record and a 4.01 ERA. However, he projects to allow 2.4 earned runs today, which is above average. Luzardo’s recent performance included a commendable outing on September 6, where he pitched 6 innings, allowing just 2 earned runs while striking out 8 batters.
On the mound for New York, David Peterson, an average pitcher this season, has a record of 9-5 and a respectable 3.72 ERA. However, projections suggest he may struggle today, with 2.7 earned runs projected. Peterson’s last start was less than stellar, as he gave up 4 earned runs over 5 innings.
Offensively, the Phillies rank 5th in MLB, while the Mets are close behind at 4th. With Philadelphia’s lineup firing on all cylinders, and their top hitter performing at an elite level recently—with a .474 batting average over the last week—the Phillies are likely to capitalize on any mistakes made by Peterson. Considering their strong performance and the projections favoring Luzardo, the Phillies should have the upper hand in this matchup.
New York Mets Insights
- David Peterson – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. David Peterson has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches 5.3% more often this season (47.8%) than he did last season (42.5%).Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Jeff McNeil – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)Jeff McNeil has been lucky this year, posting a .344 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .310 — a .034 deviation.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)Brandon Nimmo has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Among all SPs, Jesus Luzardo’s fastball velocity of 95.8 mph is in the 88th percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Harrison Bader – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)Harrison Bader is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 95% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- The Philadelphia Phillies have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Weston Wilson, Brandon Marsh, Otto Kemp, Kyle Schwarber).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 65 of their last 106 games (+18.21 Units / 15% ROI)
- New York Mets – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 39 away games (+9.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- Pete Alonso – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+110/-140)Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.20 Units / 28% ROI)