Rockies vs Guardians Betting Guide – 7/28/25

Colorado Rockies

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Cleveland Guardians

On July 28, 2025, the Cleveland Guardians host the Colorado Rockies at Progressive Field in what marks the first game of their interleague series. Both teams are struggling, with the Guardians sitting at 52-53, while the Rockies are floundering at 27-78. The Guardians are coming off a disappointing 4-1 loss to the Chicago White Sox in their last game, while the Rockies fell 5-1 to the San Diego Padres.

Cleveland is projected to start right-handed pitcher Slade Cecconi, who has had a decent season with a 5-4 record and a solid ERA of 3.76. However, his 4.87 xERA suggests that he has been somewhat fortunate and may be due for a regression. In his last start, Cecconi went 6 innings, allowing just 2 earned runs, which bodes well for his performance today. He projects to pitch 5.7 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs, although his tendency to allow 5.7 hits and 0.9 walks could present challenges.

On the other hand, Bradley Blalock, also a right-hander for the Rockies, has struggled significantly this season, holding an 8.67 ERA and a 1-2 record. His last outing saw him pitch 5 innings with 2 earned runs, but he allowed 8 hits, highlighting his ongoing difficulties. The projections indicate he will pitch just 4.8 innings and permit 2.9 earned runs, with a concerning average of 1.7 walks.

Offensively, the Guardians rank 28th in MLB, and although they have a poor batting average, they do have some power with a 19th place rank in home runs. Conversely, the Rockies are even worse, ranking 27th in overall offense and 26th in batting average. Given these matchups, the Guardians are favored with a moneyline of -275, reflecting a high implied team total of 5.58 runs. With the Rockies struggling to generate offense, this game could tilt heavily in favor of Cleveland.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Bradley Blalock – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Among all SPs, Bradley Blalock’s fastball spin rate of 2102 rpm ranks in the 10th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Thairo Estrada – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Thairo Estrada is an extreme groundball hitter and faces the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#1-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Colorado’s 89-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in the league: #23 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Despite technically being the “starter” in today’s game, Slade Cecconi may not go more than a couple frames consider he will function as more of an opener.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Angel Martinez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-255)
  Angel Martinez is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 64% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 6th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 67 games (+10.04 Units / 13% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 35 of their last 53 away games (+15.05 Units / 22% ROI)
• Tyler Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-120/-110)
  Tyler Freeman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 6 away games (+6.60 Units / 107% ROI)