Review Brewers vs Pirates Betting Line and Odds – 9/24/2024

Milwaukee Brewers

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Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates get set to host the Milwaukee Brewers on September 24, 2024, at PNC Park, the stakes couldn’t be more different for these two National League Central rivals. The Pirates, sitting at 73-83, are out of the playoff race and are wrapping up a below-average season. Meanwhile, the Brewers, with an 89-67 record, are having a strong season, and every game is crucial as they aim to secure a playoff spot.

Pittsburgh will send left-hander Bailey Falter to the mound. Despite his 8-8 record and a respectable 4.15 ERA, his 4.69 xFIP suggests he has been fortunate this season, indicating potential regression. Falter’s projected line of 4.6 innings with 2.5 earned runs and 3.5 strikeouts doesn’t inspire much confidence, especially against a potent Brewers offense.

Milwaukee counters with right-hander Tobias Myers, who boasts an impressive 3.05 ERA. However, his 4.01 xFIP hints that he, too, has benefited from some luck. Myers is projected to pitch five innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs with 4.7 strikeouts. The Brewers’ offense, ranked 10th in the Power Rankings, should provide him with ample run support.

Offensively, the Pirates have struggled all season, ranking 28th overall. Their recent bright spot has been Oneil Cruz, who has posted a 1.188 OPS over the last week. In contrast, the Brewers’ William Contreras has been on fire with a .412 batting average and a 1.062 OPS in the same span.

The Brewers are favored with a moneyline of -140 and an implied win probability of 56%, while the Pirates are at +120 with a 44% implied chance. Interestingly, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Pirates a slightly better chance at 47%, suggesting this matchup could be closer than the odds imply. With the Brewers’ playoff aspirations on the line, they will look to capitalize on their offensive edge and Myers’ solid, if somewhat lucky, pitching.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-140)
  The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense projects as the best among every team on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Brice Turang has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (63% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• It may be wise to expect weaker performance for the Milwaukee Brewers offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 5th-luckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bailey Falter – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Bailey Falter has been granted a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an -7.5 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Oneil Cruz has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.7-mph average in the last two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 95.5-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit 30.4% of their balls in the air 100 mph or harder this year, ranking them as the #9 team in the league by this stat.
  Explain: To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 69 games at home (+7.50 Units / 9% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 86 of their last 156 games (+8.85 Units / 5% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)
  Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+9.30 Units / 49% ROI)