
Toronto Blue Jays
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Athletics
-180O/U: 9
(-110/-110)+155
(-110/-110)+155
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- José Soriano – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Jose Soriano’s fastball velocity has decreased 1 mph this year (95.6 mph) below where it was last year (96.6 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Kazuma Okamoto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)Sacramento’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams today creates a favorable matchup for Kazuma Okamoto, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Toronto Blue Jays – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen grades out as the 4th-best out of all MLB teams.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Athletics Insights
- Jack Perkins – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-160)Compared to league average, Jack Perkins has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an -7.2 fewer adjusted pitches each start.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Jonah Heim – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)Jonah Heim is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)Lawrence Butler has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.3%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-deepest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Athletics – Moneyline (+155)The Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+6.05 Units / 76% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 50 away games (+6.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- Andrés Giménez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)Andrés Giménez has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.80 Units / 24% ROI)
