Review Betting Odds and Picks for Phillies vs Yankees – Sunday, July 27, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees prepare to face the Philadelphia Phillies on July 27, 2025, tensions are high in this interleague matchup. Both teams are in the thick of competitive seasons, with the Yankees holding a record of 56-48 and the Phillies at 60-44. The Yankees will be looking to bounce back after a close loss in yesterday’s game, while the Phillies are riding high after a decisive win.

Starting for the Yankees is Carlos Rodon, who has had an above-average season, ranking 68th among MLB starting pitchers. Rodon brings a solid 3.10 ERA into this game, but his 3.69 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate this year. He projects to pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing approximately 2.7 earned runs, but concerns linger about his ability to limit hits and walks. The Yankees’ offense, which ranks 1st in MLB, will need to capitalize on his average performance to support their pitcher.

On the other side, Zack Wheeler, the Phillies’ ace, is having an elite season, ranking 3rd among starting pitchers with a stellar 2.39 ERA. Wheeler’s ability to limit walks—boasting a low 5.3 BB%—could neutralize the Yankees’ high-walk offense, which ranks 1st in MLB. He is projected to pitch 5.8 innings and allow around 2.4 earned runs, which could be enough against a Yankees lineup that excels at power hitting but struggles with consistency.

With the Yankees’ offense performing at an elite level, they may have an edge despite the odds suggesting a close game. The projections indicate a competitive total of 8.0 runs, making this matchup one to watch for fans and bettors alike.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Zack Wheeler’s 2475-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 89th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Despite posting a .405 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Kyle Schwarber has been very fortunate given the .040 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .365.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Philadelphia’s 89.8-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in the majors: #5 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Carlos Rodon has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 5.9 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
  Ryan McMahon is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Anthony Volpe hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 6th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 24 games (+10.50 Units / 40% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 45 of their last 86 games (+12.20 Units / 9% ROI)
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+130/-170)
  Trea Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+9.00 Units / 49% ROI)