Review Betting Odds and Picks for Phillies vs Brewers – Wednesday, September 3, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers host the Philadelphia Phillies on September 3, 2025, both teams are in strong positions. The Brewers, with an impressive record of 85-54, are looking to solidify their playoff positioning, while the Phillies stand at 80-58, also vying for postseason glory. Both teams are coming off a competitive game yesterday, with the Brewers narrowly edging the Phillies, adding some extra tension to this matchup.

On the mound, the Brewers are slated to start left-handed pitcher Jose Quintana, who enters this game with a Win/Loss record of 10-5 and an ERA of 3.69. Although Quintana ranks as the 229th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, his projected performance looks decent for today, as he’s expected to pitch around 5.3 innings and allow 2.9 earned runs. However, he does have a concerning projection of allowing 5.6 hits and 2.0 walks, which could be crucial against a potent Phillies lineup.

The Phillies will counter with right-hander Aaron Nola, who has had a rough season with a 3-7 record and a troubling ERA of 6.47. His xFIP of 3.72 suggests he may have been unlucky, and projections indicate he could perform better today. Nola is expected to pitch 5.7 innings and allow around 2.8 earned runs, but his track record this season raises concerns.

Offensively, the Brewers rank 10th in MLB, highlighted by their 2nd best team batting average this season. Conversely, the Phillies boast the 6th best offense, with a solid 3rd in batting average. This matchup is pivotal, especially given that the game total is set high at 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive and high-scoring affair. With the Brewers’ bullpen ranked 10th and the Phillies at 2nd, the late innings could very well decide this tightly contested game.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Compared to the average hurler, Aaron Nola has been given an above-average leash this year, throwing an extra 6.3 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  J.T. Realmuto has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.4-mph to 94.5-mph over the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen projects as the 10th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Jose Quintana – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-170/+135)
  Jose Quintana’s sinker rate has risen by 13.9% from last season to this one (30.4% to 44.3%) .
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Andrew Vaughn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Despite posting a .294 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Andrew Vaughn has experienced some negative variance given the .042 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .336.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Jackson Chourio hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 92 games (+29.70 Units / 24% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 101 games (+17.56 Units / 15% ROI)
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+540/-950)
  Brice Turang has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games at home (+22.70 Units / 227% ROI)