Review Betting Odds and Picks for Cubs vs Brewers – Friday, May 2, 2025

Chicago Cubs

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Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers will host the Chicago Cubs in an exciting National League Central matchup on May 2, 2025, at American Family Field. Both teams are looking to gain momentum, especially after contrasting results in their last games. The Brewers suffered a shutout loss to the Cubs, falling 8-0, while the Cubs celebrated a solid 8-3 victory.

Currently, the Brewers sit at a .500 record of 16-16, while the Cubs boast a strong 19-13 mark, ranking them as one of the best offenses in MLB, sitting 2nd in batting average and 3rd in home runs. The Brewers’ offense, on the other hand, ranks 17th overall and is struggling to find consistent power, sitting 22nd in home runs. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 2nd in the league, which could play a crucial role in this matchup.

On the mound, Quinn Priester is projected to start for the Brewers. He has had an average season thus far, with a 3.79 ERA and a below-average strikeout rate of 4.0 strikeouts per game. Priester’s recent performance included a rough outing where he allowed 5 earned runs in his last start. He faces a challenging task against a Cubs lineup that is patient and aggressive, with the Cubs ranking 3rd in walks drawn.

Ben Brown will take the mound for the Cubs, who has struggled with a 6.04 ERA but has the potential for improvement given his lower xFIP of 4.05. Brown’s recent outing was also disappointing, as he allowed 6 earned runs in just 4 innings pitched.

With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, the projections suggest a competitive game, favoring the Cubs slightly. The Brewers, despite their recent struggles, will look to capitalize on their speed and take advantage of any mistakes by the Cubs’ pitching staff.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Ben Brown – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Because of his reverse platoon split, Ben Brown meets a tough challenge squaring off against 6 bats in the projected offense who share his hand in today’s matchup.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Dansby Swanson is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The 9.8% Barrel% of the Chicago Cubs ranks them as the #8 club in Major League Baseball this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)
  Quinn Priester turned in a great performance in his previous outing and gave up 1 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Joey Ortiz’s average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 87.8-mph average last year has decreased to 82.9-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  William Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-140)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.70 Units / 22% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 27 games (+14.20 Units / 39% ROI)
• Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+180/-235)
  Joseph Ortiz has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+10.15 Units / 101% ROI)