Reds vs Rays Injury Report – Friday, July 26, 2024

Cincinnati Reds

@

Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays host the Cincinnati Reds in an intriguing Interleague matchup on July 26, 2024, at Tropicana Field. Both teams are having middling seasons, with the Rays holding a 52-51 record and the Reds slightly behind at 49-53. The Rays are coming off an impressive 13-0 shutout victory against the Blue Jays, while the Reds surprised many by defeating the Braves 9-4 as significant underdogs.

On the mound, the Rays will start right-hander Shane Baz, who has had a mixed season so far. Baz has a 3.95 ERA but a concerning 5.10 xFIP, indicating he might regress. He has only started three games this season, posting a 0-1 record. His last outing was a short one, lasting just three innings with no earned runs but five walks. Baz will face a Reds lineup that ranks 16th in MLB in offense but struggles with strikeouts, ranking 5th most in the league. This could play to Baz’s advantage despite his low strikeout rate of 19.1%.

Opposing Baz is left-hander Nick Lodolo for the Reds. Lodolo has been a bright spot for Cincinnati, boasting an 8-3 record and a solid 3.51 ERA over 15 starts. He projects to pitch 5.5 innings and strike out 6.2 batters on average, which could be effective against a Rays offense that ranks 21st overall and struggles with batting average and home runs. Lodolo’s last start saw him pitch six innings, allowing four earned runs but striking out eight.

Offensively, the Rays are led by Isaac Paredes, who has been their most consistent hitter this season. However, Brandon Lowe has been on fire recently, hitting .273 with three home runs and a 1.157 OPS over the last week. For the Reds, Elly De La Cruz has been their standout player, particularly excelling in the last seven days with a .381 batting average and five stolen bases.

The betting markets see this as a close game, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Rays a slight edge with a 53% win probability. The game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, suggesting a potentially tight, low-scoring affair. Given the Rays’ recent offensive explosion and the Reds’ inconsistency, Tampa Bay might just have the upper hand in this series opener.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (-110)
  Out of every team on the slate today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the the Cincinnati Reds.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Spencer Steer is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of Tampa Bay (#2-best of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  The Cincinnati Reds bullpen projects as the 5th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-155)
  Shane Baz has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 12.5 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Curtis Mead – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Curtis Mead is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (45.5% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 6th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 56 of their last 91 games (+18.85 Units / 18% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Run Line +1.5 (-215)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 54 of their last 95 games (+8.65 Units / 7% ROI)
• Jose Siri – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+660/-1300)
  Jose Siri has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+12.80 Units / 183% ROI)