Reds vs Dodgers Expert Picks and Betting Tips – Wednesday September 9, 2026

Cincinnati Reds

@

Los Angeles Dodgers

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+215)
  In his last start, Rhett Lowder was in good form and conceded 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Elly De La Cruz has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.9-mph to 98.8-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Sal Stewart – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Sal Stewart has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.4%) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 8th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-290)
  Yoshinobu Yamamoto is an extreme groundball pitcher (47.8% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #5 HR venue among all major league stadiums — in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Today’s version of the Dodgers projected offense is a bit watered down, as their .318 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .336 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 50 games at home (+5.45 Units / 9% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (+240)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+4.15 Units / 35% ROI)
• Teoscar Hernández – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Teoscar Hernández has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+8.50 Units / 76% ROI)