Reds vs Brewers Prediction and Team Stats Analysis – 9/27/25

Cincinnati Reds

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to face the Cincinnati Reds on September 27, 2025, the stakes are high, especially for the Brewers, who are looking to solidify their playoff position with a strong finish to the season. Currently holding a record of 96-64, the Brewers are enjoying a fantastic season, while the Reds stand at 82-78, having had a more average year. In their last matchup, the Brewers came out on top, showcasing their offensive prowess.

On the mound, the Brewers are projected to start Robert Gasser, a left-handed pitcher with a modest projection of 4.3 innings and an average of 1.9 earned runs allowed. While Gasser’s strikeout rate of 4.1 is below average, he’ll face a Reds lineup that ranks 18th in MLB this season, struggling with a .240 batting average. This could play to Gasser’s advantage, especially given his ability to limit damage.

Opposing him will be Andrew Abbott, also a left-handed pitcher, who has had a solid season with a 2.80 ERA and a respectable 9-7 record. However, his 4.32 xFIP suggests he may have benefitted from some good fortune this year. Abbott’s low walk rate (6.5 BB%) will be tested against a Brewers offense that ranks 4th in MLB for walks. If he can maintain his control, he could neutralize one of Milwaukee’s key strengths.

Offensively, the Brewers rank 3rd in team batting average, which indicates their ability to make contact and get on base. Despite ranking just 20th in home runs, their speed on the bases (2nd in MLB for stolen bases) adds another dynamic to their game. Meanwhile, the Reds’ offense has struggled, ranking 20th in batting average and 21st in home runs, limiting their scoring potential.

With a Game Total set at 7.5 runs, the betting lines favor the Brewers at -150, reflecting their strong position this season. As both teams clash, all eyes will be on how well Gasser and Abbott perform under pressure, potentially determining the outcome of this crucial matchup.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Andrew Abbott – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Given that groundball pitchers are least effective against flyball hitters, Andrew Abbott (41.6% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 3 FB hitters in Milwaukee’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Matt McLain has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (53% of the time), but he is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Matt McLain hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Robert Gasser – Over/Under Strikeouts
  With 8 batters of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Robert Gasser will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  The Cincinnati Reds have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Christian Yelich stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Milwaukee Brewers with a 19.7% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-150)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 80 of their last 126 games (+27.15 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 77 of their last 130 games (+27.60 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+105/-135)
  Jackson Chourio has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+5.60 Units / 21% ROI)