Red Sox vs Athletics Game Highlights - Thursday, July 30, 2026

-160O/U: 10.5
(-110/-110)+140

Sonny Gray – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sonny Gray to throw 83 pitches in this matchup (7th-least on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
Jarren Duran – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)
Jarren Duran is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
In today’s game, Jarren Duran is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 36.4% rate (93rd percentile).
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+130)
Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Mason Barnett has gone to his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 53.4% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
Jacob Wilson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
Jacob Wilson has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 83.6-mph dropping to 81.5-mph in the past two weeks.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Compared to their .323 overall projected rate, the .311 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Athletics projected lineup today suggests this version of the lineup considerably a bit watered down.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Athletics – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 18 games (+16.20 Units / 67% ROI)
Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-125)
The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 35 games (+12.30 Units / 30% ROI)
Henry Bolte – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+150/-195)
Henry Bolte has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.40 Units / 34% ROI)

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