Read the Nationals vs Rockies Betting Guide – April 18, 2025

Washington Nationals

@

Colorado Rockies

Washington Nationals Insights

• Brad Lord – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  When estimating his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Bradley Lord in the 10th percentile among all starting pitchers in the league.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Extreme flyball batters like Josh Bell are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Antonio Senzatela.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Ryan McMahon has a ton of pop (78th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (30.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Brad Lord struggles to strike batters out (10th percentile K%) — great news for McMahon.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Compared to their .314 overall projected rate, the .292 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected lineup today suggests this version of the lineup considerably a bit watered down.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.55 Units / 9% ROI)
• Jacob Stallings – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-105/-125)
  Jacob Stallings has hit the Singles Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 57% ROI)