Read the Nationals vs Rockies Betting Guide – April 18, 2025

Washington Nationals

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Colorado Rockies

On April 18, 2025, the Colorado Rockies will host the Washington Nationals at Coors Field in what marks the first game of their series. Both teams are struggling early in the season, with the Rockies sitting at 3-15 and the Nationals at 7-12. The Rockies are projected to start right-hander Chase Dollander, who has a mixed record of 1-1 and an ERA of 5.06, while the Nationals will counter with lefty MacKenzie Gore, who holds a more respectable 3.52 ERA and a 1-2 record.

In their most recent outings, the Rockies lost a close game against the San Francisco Giants, falling 8-7, while the Nationals were shut out 1-0 by the Atlanta Braves. Dollander has shown flashes of potential, notably pitching six innings with only two earned runs in his last start, but he faces a daunting challenge against a Nationals lineup that, while not elite, ranks 21st overall in offensive efficiency.

MacKenzie Gore enters this matchup as a high-strikeout pitcher, boasting a 33.7% strikeout rate. This could play to his advantage against a Rockies offense that ranks 2nd in MLB for strikeouts. However, the Rockies’ offense has struggled significantly, ranking 25th overall, which may hinder their ability to capitalize on Gore’s mistakes.

Interestingly, the projections suggest that the Rockies could be undervalued in this matchup, with a moneyline of +115 implying a 45% chance of winning. Given the Rockies’ home-field advantage and the potential for Dollander to improve, they might just surprise the Nationals in this crucial early-season contest. The game total is set at an average 8.5 runs, indicating a potentially competitive matchup.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)
  MacKenzie Gore is an extreme flyball pitcher (32.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #4 HR venue among all stadiums today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Amed Rosario – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+195/-260)
  Amed Rosario is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  When it comes to his overall offensive skill, James Wood ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Chase Dollander – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  The Washington Nationals have 6 batters in the projected batting order that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chase Dollander today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Kyle Farmer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Kyle Farmer’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 90.3-mph mark last season has fallen off to 85.1-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Chase Dollander – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Projected catcher Hunter Goodman projects as a horrible pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.55 Units / 30% ROI)
• Luis Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-255)
  Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+6.65 Units / 54% ROI)