Read the Game Recap for Cubs vs Reds – May 25th, 2025

Chicago Cubs

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds and the Chicago Cubs square off on May 25, 2025, this matchup carries significance in the National League Central division. The Cubs sit comfortably at 31-21, reflecting a strong season thus far, while the Reds, at 26-27, are in a more average position. After splitting the first two games of this series, yesterday the Reds edged the Cubs 6-4, showcasing their resilience.

On the mound, the Reds are projected to start Nick Lodolo, who has shown flashes of brilliance this season. Lodolo is currently ranked as the 86th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, boasting a solid 3.22 ERA. In his last outing on May 19, he pitched impressively, allowing just 1 earned run over 6 innings. However, projections suggest he may underperform today, as he has averaged a dismal 5.7 hits allowed per game.

Opposing him is Ben Brown for the Cubs, who currently ranks 46th in the MLB. Although Brown’s ERA of 5.44 indicates struggles, the projections suggest he could be turning a corner; his xFIP of 3.24 projects better performance moving forward. His last outing was a rough one, where he was tagged for 6 earned runs over 5 innings.

The Cubs possess one of the league’s most potent offenses, ranking 3rd overall and 3rd in batting average. Meanwhile, the Reds rank just 12th in overall offensive capability. With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, sportsbooks view this as a competitive contest. The Reds may seek to exploit Brown’s inconsistencies, but they will need to capitalize on Lodolo’s potential to keep the game close.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  Ben Brown is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #1 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Justin Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Justin Turner has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (71% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Kyle Tucker pulls many of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Nick Lodolo’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (48.7% vs. 43.7% last year) figures to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Austin Hays – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  This season, Austin Hays has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97.1 mph compared to last year’s 91.6 mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Jose Trevino, the Reds’s expected catcher in today’s game, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 28 games (+11.00 Units / 35% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 45 games (+8.90 Units / 14% ROI)
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+345/-510)
  Seiya Suzuki has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+7.10 Units / 79% ROI)