Read the Boxscore for Rays vs Royals – Thursday June 26th, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals host the Tampa Bay Rays on June 26, 2025, both teams are looking to establish momentum in this critical matchup. The Rays are currently in good form, sitting at 45-35, while the Royals are struggling at 38-42. In their previous game on June 25, the Royals were shut out by the Rays, losing 3-0, which adds pressure for Kansas City to turn things around at Kauffman Stadium.

The projected starters for this game are Michael Lorenzen for the Royals and Shane Baz for the Rays. Lorenzen has had a challenging season, with a 4-7 record and a below-average ERA of 4.81. Although his xERA suggests he may have been unlucky, his recent performance has not inspired confidence. In his last outing on June 20, Lorenzen allowed 2 earned runs over 5 innings, which is a modest improvement compared to his overall season.

Conversely, Shane Baz, who has a better season record of 7-3 and an ERA of 4.79, is also looking to bounce back after a rough outing where he surrendered 5 earned runs in 5 innings. Despite this, Baz’s advanced metrics indicate he is an above-average pitcher, ranked 77th among starters.

Offensively, the Royals have faced struggles, ranking 27th in the league. They have hit just 56 home runs this season, the 2nd least in MLB. In contrast, the Rays boast a more potent offense, ranking 11th overall and 2nd in batting average. This disparity could prove crucial in tonight’s game, especially given Baz’s tendency to induce ground balls, which may neutralize the Royals’ lack of power.

Betting markets indicate a close contest, with the Royals holding a moneyline of +100 and an implied team total of 4.88 runs, suggesting they may be undervalued. If Kansas City can leverage their strong bullpen, currently ranked 5th in MLB, they might just surprise the Rays in this matchup.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Shane Baz’s curveball usage has jumped by 9.7% from last year to this one (20.5% to 30.2%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Extreme flyball bats like Yandy Diaz generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Michael Lorenzen.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.7%) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  In his previous outing, Michael Lorenzen turned in a great performance and accumulated 7 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Nick Loftin – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Nick Loftin is penciled in 5th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Kansas City Royals with a 19.8% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 52 of their last 75 games (+28.35 Units / 33% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (-120)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 31 games (+13.00 Units / 35% ROI)
• Jonathan India – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-125/-105)
  Jonathan India has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.45 Units / 53% ROI)