Read the Boxscore for Phillies vs Blue Jays – Wednesday September 4th, 2024

Philadelphia Phillies

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Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays will look to bounce back on September 4, 2024, after a narrow 10-9 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies in their last outing. With the Blue Jays sitting at 67-73 this season, they have found themselves in a difficult position, currently 4th in the American League East and lacking momentum as they aim for a potential Wild Card spot.

The Phillies, on the other hand, boast an impressive 82-56 record and rank 2nd in the National League East. They come into this game riding high, having won yesterday’s matchup, fueled by an offense that ranks 6th best in MLB. Their best hitter, Kyle Schwarber, has been particularly hot lately, contributing significantly with 6 RBIs over the past week.

On the mound, the Blue Jays are projected to start Bowden Francis, who has been solid this season with an ERA of 3.66. However, his advanced stats indicate he’s been somewhat lucky, as his FIP sits at 4.26, suggesting he may face challenges against a powerful Phillies lineup that ranks 6th in home runs this year. Francis’s flyball tendencies could play into Philadelphia’s hands, especially given their strength in turning good pitches into long balls.

Conversely, Cristopher Sanchez will take the hill for the Phillies, where his FIP of 2.94 reflects his potential for better performance. Sanchez has showcased control, posing a challenge for a Blue Jays offense that has struggled all season, sitting at 27th in home runs.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Phillies are favored, projecting them to score 4.91 runs compared to the Blue Jays’ 3.93. This low total for Toronto speaks volumes about their current struggles, putting them at a disadvantage as they face a red-hot division rival in an important series.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Given that flyball pitchers struggle the most against groundball hitters, Cristopher Sanchez (55.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 2 GB hitters in Toronto’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  J.T. Realmuto is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Kyle Schwarber hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 80th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Bowden Francis – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Bowden Francis has utilized his fastball a lot this year, though: 52.8% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Leonardo Jimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Leo Jimenez’s average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 87.3-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 77.9-mph in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Toronto Blue Jays (20.2 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 4th-least strikeout-prone group of hitters of all teams on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 44 games at home (+18.00 Units / 37% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 40 of their last 65 games (+12.70 Units / 16% ROI)
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Daulton Varsho has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 22 games at home (+14.30 Units / 42% ROI)