Read the Boxscore for Guardians vs Tigers – (Wednesday July 10th, 2024

Cleveland Guardians

@

Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers get set to host the Cleveland Guardians on July 10, 2024, at Comerica Park, fans are in for an intriguing American League Central matchup. The Guardians, currently sitting at 57-33, are enjoying a great season and are in the thick of the playoff race. The Tigers, on the other hand, have a 43-49 record and are having a below-average season. This game marks the third in the series between these two teams.

The Tigers will send Reese Olson to the mound. Olson, a right-handed pitcher, has started 17 games this year with a 3-8 win/loss record and an impressive 3.22 ERA. However, his 3.75 SIERA suggests he might have been a bit lucky this season and could see some regression. Olson is projected to pitch 5.5 innings, allow 2.5 earned runs, and strike out 4.2 batters, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system.

For the Guardians, Tanner Bibee will take the mound. Also a right-hander, Bibee has a 7-3 win/loss record and a solid 3.67 ERA over 18 starts. THE BAT X projects Bibee to pitch 5.6 innings, allow 2.3 earned runs, and strike out 5.5 batters. Despite both pitchers having similar innings projections, Bibee’s overall stats and projections indicate he’s likely to have the edge.

Offensively, the Tigers have struggled this season, ranking 26th in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, with particularly poor showings in team batting average (24th), home runs (21st), and stolen bases (28th). In contrast, the Guardians are a more balanced team, ranking 12th in offense, 13th in batting average, 10th in home runs, and 9th in stolen bases.

The Tigers’ bullpen is ranked 16th, a middle-of-the-pack performance, while the Guardians boast the best bullpen in MLB, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. This disparity could be a deciding factor in the later innings.

Despite the Tigers being underdogs with a current moneyline of +130, there are some bright spots. Colt Keith has been red-hot over the last week, batting .414 with a 1.348 OPS, 12 hits, 8 runs, 7 RBIs, and 4 home runs in just 7 games. If Keith can maintain his form, he could provide a much-needed spark for the Tigers’ offense.

Overall, the Guardians are favored with a moneyline of -150 and an implied win probability of 58%. Given their superior bullpen, more consistent offense, and the strong performance of Bibee, Cleveland looks poised to take this matchup. However, the Tigers will hope their recent offensive surge, led by Keith, can turn the tide in their favor.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+140)
  Tanner Bibee has averaged 91.8 adjusted pitches per start this year, grading out in the 76th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Steven Kwan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.337) provides evidence that Steven Kwan has had positive variance on his side this year with his .410 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• The Cleveland Guardians have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in the future
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Reese Olson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Reese Olson has utilized his change-up 7.2% more often this season (22.4%) than he did last season (15.2%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Justyn-Henry Malloy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Over the past week, Justyn-Henry Malloy’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.9% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Detroit Tigers hitters as a unit rank in the cellar of the majors this year ( 9th-worst) as far as their 88.5-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 78 games (+5.30 Units / 6% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+105)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 72 games (+13.35 Units / 16% ROI)
• Gio Urshela – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Gio Urshela has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.45 Units / 47% ROI)