Read the Boxscore for Giants vs D-Backs – Tuesday September 16th, 2025

San Francisco Giants

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Arizona Diamondbacks

On September 16, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will look to continue their recent success against the San Francisco Giants at Chase Field. In their last matchup, the Diamondbacks dominated, winning 8-1. With both teams hovering around .500—Arizona at 76-75 and San Francisco at 75-75—this National League West contest holds significance as each team aims to finish the season strong.

The Diamondbacks are projected to start Eduardo Rodriguez, who has had a mixed season but showed promise in his last outing, pitching 6 innings of shutout ball with 6 strikeouts against only 2 hits on September 10. His 4.44 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky this year, and he could outperform his 4.98 ERA as he faces a Giants offense currently ranked 21st in MLB. Rodriguez’s strikeout potential will be key against a San Francisco lineup that has struggled to generate consistent offense.

On the other hand, the Giants will counter with Tristan Beck, who has been part of the bullpen this season and hasn’t showcased the same level of performance as Rodriguez. Beck, who projects to pitch only 3.5 innings, has an ERA of 4.88, and given his recent struggles, he may have a tough time against a Diamondbacks offense ranked 5th in the league, boasting a strong batting average and power numbers.

The Diamondbacks have a solid implied team total of 4.71 runs for this game, while the Giants sit slightly lower at 4.29. As both teams aim to improve their standings, the Diamondbacks seem poised to capitalize on their offensive advantages and Rodriguez’s recent form to secure another win.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Tristan Beck – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Tristan Beck to be on a bit of a short leash today, projecting a maximum of 81 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Matt Chapman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Matt Chapman is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Arizona (#2-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The San Francisco Giants have been the 7th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Eduardo Rodriguez has a reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 7 opposite-handed batters today.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-265/+195)
  Gabriel Moreno is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Arizona Diamondbacks hitters as a group rank 9th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when assessing with their 9.3% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 44 of their last 69 games at home (+19.40 Units / 18% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 32 away games (+8.60 Units / 23% ROI)
• Alek Thomas – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+155/-205)
  Alek Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+7.40 Units / 82% ROI)