Read the Boxscore for Cubs vs Cardinals – Saturday July 13th, 2024

Chicago Cubs

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St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs are set to clash once again on July 13, 2024, in the second game of a double-header at Busch Stadium. This National League Central matchup comes with both teams fighting to gain traction. The Cardinals are having an above-average season with a 48-45 record, while the Cubs, sitting at 46-49, are struggling to stay afloat.

Kyle Gibson takes the mound for the Cardinals, bringing a 7-3 record and a 3.96 ERA into the game. Despite his solid ERA, Gibson’s 4.72 xERA suggests he might have been on the lucky side this season. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, forecasts Gibson to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, 5.8 hits, and issuing 1.7 walks. His opponent, Cubs starter Javier Assad, boasts a stellar 3.04 ERA but with a concerning 4.27 xFIP, indicating he too might regress. Assad is projected for a less impressive outing, with only 4.3 innings and 2.2 earned runs.

Offensively, the Cardinals, who rank 19th in MLB according to Power Rankings, are led by Alec Burleson. Over the past week, Burleson has been on fire, hitting .292 with a .903 OPS, 7 hits, 4 runs, 6 RBIs, and 2 home runs in six games. Conversely, the Cubs, who rank 18th, have seen a strong performance from Michael Busch, who hit .370 with a 1.097 OPS over his last six games, including 10 hits, 7 runs, and 6 RBIs.

Considering the Cardinals are slight favorites with a -135 moneyline and an implied win probability of 55%, Gibson’s ability to navigate the Cubs’ patient lineup, which ranks 5th in walks, will be crucial. If Gibson can mitigate the walks and Burleson continues his hot streak, the Cardinals have a solid chance to edge out the Cubs in this tightly contested matchup.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  Over the past week, Ian Happ’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.2% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Chicago Cubs have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Pete Crow-Armstrong, Christopher Morel, Michael Busch).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Kyle Gibson – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Kyle Gibson has averaged 91.3 adjusted pitches per GS this year, placing in the 75th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Matt Carpenter – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Matt Carpenter may have the upper hand against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals’ bullpen ranks as the 5th-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 41 games (+5.55 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games (+8.80 Units / 24% ROI)
• Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+470/-800)
  Ian Happ has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 28 games (+11.90 Units / 43% ROI)