Read the Boxscore for Brewers vs Reds – Wednesday June 4th, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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Cincinnati Reds

On June 4, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Great American Ball Park for the third game of their series. The Reds are currently sitting at 30-32, having recently secured a win against the Brewers by a score of 4-2 on June 3, while the Brewers hold a record of 33-29. This matchup is crucial for both teams as they look to gain momentum in the National League Central.

The Reds will send Andrew Abbott to the mound, who is enjoying a stellar season with a 5-0 record and a remarkable ERA of 1.51. His last outing was impressive, where he pitched 7 innings with zero earned runs and eight strikeouts. However, his 3.98 xFIP indicates he may have been a bit lucky, suggesting potential for regression. Abbott’s average projection of 5.2 innings pitched today aligns with his ability to keep runs off the board.

Quinn Priester, projected to start for the Brewers, has had a more challenging season, holding a 2-2 record and a 4.09 ERA. While Priester pitched well in his last start, allowing only 2 earned runs over 6 innings, his below-average strikeout rate of 14.9% could be a liability against a Reds offense that ranks 5th in MLB for strikeouts.

Despite the Reds’ below-average season, they possess an offensive edge, ranking 13th overall. The projections suggest a solid outing for Abbott, and with the Reds’ strong home-field advantage, they are favored to win. Bettors may find value in Cincinnati’s current moneyline of -135, indicating a favorable outcome against the Brewers, who struggle offensively with a ranking of 24th in MLB. Overall, this game presents an intriguing opportunity for the Reds to build on their recent success and capitalize on their pitching advantage.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• D.L. Hall – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  DL Hall’s 2140.8-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 22nd percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Joey Ortiz’s average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 87.8-mph mark last season has decreased to 84.4-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Rhys Hoskins pulls many of his flyballs (40.8% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  Andrew Abbott is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.7% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #1 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• TJ Friedl – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.247) provides evidence that TJ Friedl has experienced some positive variance this year with his .305 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Tyler Stephenson, Will Benson, Matt McLain).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 33 games (+9.80 Units / 27% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 49 games (+10.35 Units / 19% ROI)
• Eric Haase – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+400/-620)
  Eric Haase has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 away games (+8.50 Units / 85% ROI)