Read the Boxscore for Blue Jays vs Pirates – Tuesday August 19th, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

On August 19, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Toronto Blue Jays at PNC Park in a critical Interleague matchup. The Pirates are currently struggling, sitting at 53-73, while the Blue Jays boast a much healthier 73-53 record. In their last game, the Pirates managed to snap a losing streak with a 5-2 victory over the Blue Jays, who are looking to bounce back after this unexpected defeat.

Projected starters Mitch Keller for the Pirates and Max Scherzer for the Blue Jays present a classic matchup of a struggling pitcher against a more established ace. Keller, ranked the 179th best starting pitcher in MLB, has had a rough season with a 5-11 record and an above-average ERA of 4.13. In his most recent outing, Keller was hit hard, allowing 6 earned runs over just 4 innings. Meanwhile, Scherzer, ranked 53rd, has shown resilience with a 3-2 record and a solid 3.83 ERA, pitching well in his last start with only 1 earned run in 7 innings.

Offensively, the Pirates rank as the 30th best team in MLB, struggling significantly in batting average and home runs, while the Blue Jays excel as the 2nd best offense, leading the league in batting average. The projections suggest that Keller might allow 3.1 earned runs today, while Scherzer is expected to keep it to around 2.4. Given the Pirates’ low implied team total of 3.65 runs and the Blue Jays’ high total of 4.35, it appears that the Blue Jays have the upper hand in this matchup.

Betting lines reflect this sentiment, as the Blue Jays enter as favorites at -150, while the Pirates sit at +130. With the Blue Jays looking to recover from their last loss, expect them to capitalize on their offensive strengths against Keller’s shaky performance.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-145)
  Among every team in action today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the Toronto Blue Jays.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Nathan Lukes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Over the last week, Nathan Lukes’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.1% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The underlying talent of the Toronto Blue Jays projected offense today (.319 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably worse than their .333 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Recording 92.3 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Mitch Keller places him the 82nd percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Spencer Horwitz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Spencer Horwitz’s average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 87.3-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 80.1-mph in the last week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 61 of their last 98 games (+20.85 Units / 18% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-145)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 88 games (+18.49 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jack Suwinski – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+640/-1300)
  Jack Suwinski has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 games (+5.50 Units / 61% ROI)