Athletics
Houston Astros
(-105/-115)-135
As the Houston Astros and the Oakland Athletics prepare for their matchup on July 25, 2025, there’s plenty at stake. The Astros, sitting at 60-43, are having a strong season in the American League West, while the Athletics, with a record of 43-62, continue to struggle. In their most recent game yesterday, the Athletics pulled off a 5-2 victory against the Astros, highlighting their need for momentum as they look to salvage some pride.
On the mound for the Astros, Ryan Gusto is slated to take the ball. Despite being ranked 153rd among starting pitchers, Gusto has shown flashes of potential, holding a 6-3 record with an average ERA of 4.46 this season. However, he projects poorly for today’s game, with an average of 4.8 innings pitched and 2.4 earned runs allowed. In his last start on July 6, Gusto pitched well, going 6 innings with only 1 earned run, but he’ll need to replicate that form against the Athletics.
Jeffrey Springs, starting for the Athletics, has struggled as well, ranking among the worst pitchers in MLB. With an ERA of 4.18 and a concerning FIP of 4.71, Springs got hit hard in his last outing, allowing 5 earned runs over just 4 innings. His projections for today aren’t any better, as he’s expected to allow 2.9 earned runs in 5.3 innings pitched.
Offensively, the Astros rank as the 10th best in MLB, showcasing their ability to put runs on the board, especially with their best hitter boasting a .281 batting average and an .807 OPS. Conversely, the Athletics’ strength lies in their power, ranking 7th in home runs, but their overall offensive production has been lackluster.
With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs and the Astros favored at -135, it seems their solid hitting and superior bullpen (ranked 4th) might provide the edge they need to bounce back from yesterday’s loss against a struggling Athletics team.
Athletics Insights
- Jeffrey Springs – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)With 9 hitters who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Jeffrey Springs meets a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)Despite posting a .409 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Nicholas Kurtz has had positive variance on his side given the .072 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .337.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Lawrence Butler has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Houston Astros Insights
- Ryan Gusto – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Ryan Gusto’s 2425-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 83rd percentile out of all starting pitchers.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Victor Caratini – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)Victor Caratini is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Houston Astros – Moneyline (-135)The 3rd-worst projected offense on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill is that of the Houston Astros.Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Houston Astros – Moneyline (-135)The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 58 games (+12.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)The Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 36 away games (+6.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Lawrence Butler has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.45 Units / 60% ROI)