Read the Boxscore for Angels vs Twins – Monday September 9th, 2024

Los Angeles Angels

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the Los Angeles Angels on September 9, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting situations. The Twins, currently holding a record of 76-67, are enjoying an above-average season and sit in a competitive position, while the Angels, at 59-84, are struggling significantly. This game marks the first in a series between these two clubs, adding a layer of intrigue to their matchup.

In their last outing, the Twins faced off against the Chicago White Sox, while the Angels played the Texas Rangers. The Twins are projected to start David Festa, who has had a challenging season with a 2-5 record and a 4.75 ERA, but his 3.29 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky and could perform better. On the other hand, Reid Detmers of the Angels has struggled even more, sporting a 5.87 ERA and a below-average projection.

Offensively, the Twins rank 11th in MLB, with notable strengths in batting average (7th) and home runs (8th). Michael Helman has been the standout performer for the Twins recently, boasting a .500 batting average and a 1.250 OPS over the last week. Conversely, the Angels rank 27th in the league offensively, despite their impressive stolen base count of 7th.

The projections lean favorably toward the Twins, suggesting they will score around 5.08 runs, while the Angels are projected at just 4.44 runs. With the Twins’ solid offensive capabilities and Festa’s potential for improvement, they emerge as significant favorites in this matchup.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Reid Detmers – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Compared to league average, Reid Detmers has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an additional 3.6 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Brandon Drury – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brandon Drury’s true offensive ability to be a .298, suggesting that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .081 disparity between that figure and his actual .217 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• The Los Angeles Angels have 4 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Mickey Moniak, Bryce Teodosio, Niko Kavadas, Logan O’Hoppe).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Minnesota Twins Insights

• David Festa – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  With 6 hitters who share his hand in the opposing team’s projected lineup, David Festa ought to benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Carlos Santana – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Carlos Santana has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (63% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  The Minnesota Twins bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 41 games at home (+10.15 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 36 away games (+5.60 Units / 14% ROI)
• Jose Miranda – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+195/-260)
  Jose Miranda has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+9.45 Units / 19% ROI)