Houston Astros
Cleveland Guardians
(-110/-110)-150
As the American League season nears its climax, the Cleveland Guardians and Houston Astros meet for the third game of their series on September 29, 2024, at Progressive Field. Cleveland, with a record of 92-69, is having a strong season and remains in the hunt for postseason positioning, while the Astros, at 88-73, also contend for a playoff spot, though they trail the Guardians in these standings. The Guardians are slightly favored for this matchup, holding a moneyline of -155, translating to an implied win probability of 59%. However, the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, pegs Cleveland’s win probability at 57%, indicating a slight discrepancy worth considering.
In the most recent contest between these two teams, Houston edged out Cleveland 4-3, with Alex Bregman shining at the plate, riding a hot streak over the last week marked by a stellar .471 batting average and a 1.391 OPS. On the Guardians’ side, Jose Ramirez continues to perform impressively, posting a .389 average and a 1.400 OPS over the same span.
Nick Sandlin takes the mound for Cleveland, making a rare start in this one. Though typically a bullpen asset, Sandlin boasts a solid 3.75 ERA this season. However, his 4.26 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit fortunate in his outings. While Sandlin is generally a high-strikeout pitcher, the Astros’ lineup, known for its low strikeout rate (3rd fewest in MLB), may neutralize his effectiveness.
Houston counters with Ryan Gusto, who has struggled this season, reflected in the projections labeling him as one of the league’s weaker starters. Gusto faces a Guardians offense ranked 19th overall in MLB, with strengths in power and speed, ranking 12th in home runs and 5th in stolen bases. On the flip side, Houston’s offense, ranked 8th best, is driven by Yordan Alvarez’s robust performance, boasting a .308 batting average and a .959 OPS.
With both teams vying for playoff positions, this game could be pivotal in shaping the postseason landscape. Expect an intriguing clash between two competitive teams with playoffs aspirations on the line.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 31 games (+15.45 Units / 46% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 76 away games (+19.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jason Heyward – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+630/-1200)Jason Heyward has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+18.10 Units / 181% ROI)