Rays vs Blue Jays Betting Guide – 7/20/26

Tampa Bay Rays

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Toronto Blue Jays

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Nick Martinez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Nick Martinez has a reverse platoon split and has the misfortune of squaring off against 6 same-handed batters in this game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Chandler Simpson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-210/+160)
  Chandler Simpson has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 83.1-mph average to last season’s 81.1-mph EV.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Tampa Bay Rays with a 19% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been unlucky this year, putting up a .309 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .372 — a .063 disparity.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen grades out as the 6th-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.55 Units / 26% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 25 away games (+6.35 Units / 23% ROI)
• Junior Caminero – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+330/-480)
  Junior Caminero has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 away games (+7.75 Units / 77% ROI)