Player Stats for Brewers vs Nationals – August 3rd, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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Washington Nationals

The Milwaukee Brewers will look to maintain their momentum against the struggling Washington Nationals in the third game of their series at Nationals Park on August 3, 2025. In their last matchup, the Brewers dominated with an 8-2 victory, continuing their strong season with a record of 66-44, while the Nationals sit at a disappointing 44-66.

Milwaukee’s offense has been solid this year, ranking 13th in MLB, but they excel in batting average, sitting at 3rd overall. However, they face a challenge against Nationals pitcher Brad Lord, who has shown some signs of improvement recently, including a solid performance in his last start, where he went 5 innings allowing just 1 earned run. Lord’s season ERA stands at a respectable 3.27, but his underlying metrics suggest he may have been a bit fortunate, as indicated by his 4.42 xERA.

On the other hand, Brewers pitcher Logan Henderson has been impressive, boasting an exceptional 1.71 ERA and a perfect 3-0 record this season. Despite his average projections for innings pitched, he has the potential to capitalize on a Nationals lineup that ranks 23rd in MLB offense and has been notably low in strikeouts, providing Henderson with an advantageous matchup.

As for betting, the Nationals are positioned as underdogs with a moneyline of +125, which reflects an implied team total of 3.90 runs. In contrast, the Brewers are favored at -150 with a higher implied total of 4.60 runs. Given the disparity in team performance and pitching matchups, this game presents an opportunity for the Brewers to further assert their dominance as they continue their pursuit of postseason success.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  Logan Henderson is an extreme flyball pitcher (40% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #22 HR venue in the majors today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  In the past 7 days, Brice Turang’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Christian Yelich has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.1%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the game’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Brad Lord – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Bradley Lord’s high usage percentage of his fastball (66.7% this year) is likely dampening his results, considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Jacob Young – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Jacob Young has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 94.7-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 87.1-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be wise to expect worse numbers for the Washington Nationals offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 4th-luckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 29 games (+13.10 Units / 41% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-145)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 60 games (+21.95 Units / 27% ROI)
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-130/+100)
  Christian Yelich has hit the Singles Over in his last 10 away games (+10.10 Units / 83% ROI)