Player Props for Mets vs Nationals - Friday September 25, 2026

-135O/U: 8.5
(+105/-125)+115

Jonathan Pintaro – Over/Under Strikeouts
The Washington Nationals have 6 batters in the projected batting order that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jonathan Pintaro in this matchup, which is especially problematic given his large platoon split.
Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
Juan Soto has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 92.6-mph figure.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
New York Mets – Moneyline (-135)
The 3rd-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the New York Mets.
Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Andrew Alvarez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
Andrew Alvarez’s 91.6-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 20th percentile among all starting pitchers.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+275/-390)
Despite posting a .330 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Keibert Ruiz has been very fortunate given the .041 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .289.
Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Washington Nationals bats collectively grade out 3rd- in MLB for power this year when judging by their 8.9% Barrel%.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line
The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+7.50 Units / 29% ROI)

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