Player Props for Mets vs Nationals – Friday September 25, 2026

New York Mets

@

Washington Nationals

New York Mets Insights

• Justin Hagenman – Over/Under Strikeouts
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Justin Hagenman in the 22nd percentile when estimating his strikeout ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Juan Soto has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 92.6-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-110)
  The 2nd-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the New York Mets.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (-110)
  Among all the teams in action today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the the Washington Nationals.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Despite posting a .330 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Keibert Ruiz has been very fortunate given the .041 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .289.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals’ bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+115)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+7.50 Units / 29% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 40 away games (+8.40 Units / 19% ROI)
• Bo Bichette – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Bo Bichette has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.60 Units / 38% ROI)