Player Prop Picks for Pirates vs Reds – 9/21/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds host the Pittsburgh Pirates on September 21, 2024, both teams are looking to end their seasons on a high note despite being out of the division race. The Reds currently sit with a 75-80 record, while the Pirates are slightly behind at 72-82. Both teams have struggled this season, poised to finish below .500, but are hoping to gain some momentum heading into the offseason.

In yesterday’s game, the Reds managed to secure a close victory over the Pirates, adding a bit of intensity to this National League Central matchup at Great American Ball Park. The Reds will send right-handed pitcher Rhett Lowder to the mound. While his ERA at 1.74 is impressive, his peripheral stats suggest he’s been fortunate, with an xFIP of 4.08 hinting at potential regression. Meanwhile, Jared Jones will start for the Pirates. He ranks as the 69th-best starting pitcher, and his 3.85 ERA indicates a solid, if unspectacular, season.

Offensively, the Reds have shown an average performance, ranking 16th in home runs and 2nd in stolen bases. However, their batting average ranks 26th, highlighting a potential weakness for Jones to exploit. Meanwhile, the Pirates offense ranks 27th overall, underperforming in home runs despite a slightly better batting average ranking of 23rd.

According to betting markets, the Reds have a slight edge with a -125 moneyline, translating to a 53% implied win probability. The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, however, sees this game as a dead heat, with each team given a 50% chance of prevailing. With offensive fireworks projected from both sides, this showdown could be an intriguing battle, despite both teams’ struggles this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Jared Jones – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  When assessing his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Jared Jones in the 91st percentile among all starting pitchers in the league.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  As it relates to his home runs, Oneil Cruz has experienced some negative variance this year. His 20.2 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been significantly deflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 31.1.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Rowdy Tellez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Rowdy Tellez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 91st percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 11th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (-120)
  The Cincinnati Reds infield defense projects as the weakest out of every team playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Jake Fraley is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Will Benson, Noelvi Marte).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-220)
  Jake Fraley has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 14 games at home (+6.55 Units / 47% ROI)