Player Prop Odds for Pirates vs Tigers – Saturday September 26, 2026

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

Detroit Tigers

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Kirby Yates will “start” for Pittsburgh Pirates today but will fill the role of an opener and may not pitch more than a couple innings.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+410/-650)
  Oneil Cruz has paced 43.3 steals per 600 plate appearances this year, grading out in the 98th percentile for base-stealing.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• Pittsburgh’s 92.8-mph exit velocity on flyballs makes them the #4 group of hitters in the game this year by this stat.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Justin Verlander – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Justin Verlander has a large reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 7 opposite-handed bats today.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Kevin McGonigle – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Kevin McGonigle is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Pittsburgh (#2-worst of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Spencer Torkelson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.9% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 5th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games at home (+6.20 Units / 32% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+8.65 Units / 21% ROI)
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+390/-590)
  Brandon Lowe has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games (+18.10 Units / 181% ROI)