Player Prop Odds Breakdown for Astros vs Rays – May 20, 2025

Houston Astros

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face the Houston Astros on May 20, 2025, both teams are coming off a closely contested game yesterday, where the Astros edged the Rays 4-3. Currently, the Rays sit at 21-26, struggling to find their footing this season, while the Astros are above average at 25-22, looking to build momentum.

Zack Littell is projected to take the mound for Tampa Bay. Despite a modest ERA of 4.31, his advanced metrics suggest a decline may be on the horizon, as he has a 5.57 FIP and a 4.89 xERA, indicating he has been somewhat fortunate. Littell’s low strikeout rate of 14.8% could be a concern against an Astros lineup that has the 5th fewest strikeouts in MLB, potentially giving Houston an edge.

On the other side, Brandon Walter is set to pitch for Houston. While he is considered an average pitcher, the projections indicate that he may allow 2.0 earned runs over 3.7 innings, which is below average. However, Walter’s matchup against a struggling Rays offense, ranked 24th in MLB, could play to his advantage.

The Rays’ offense has been particularly lackluster, ranking 26th in home runs, and they have not shown the power necessary to capitalize on Littell’s potential weaknesses. Despite their speed on the basepaths, their overall offensive struggles may hinder their ability to support Littell effectively.

With the Game Total set at 9.0 runs, oddsmakers anticipate a competitive matchup. The Rays’ moneyline is currently -130, suggesting they are favored to win, but with their recent performance, bettors may want to tread carefully. The Astros, with a solid bullpen ranked 8th in MLB, could very well capitalize on any mistakes made by the Rays.

Houston Astros Insights

• Brandon Walter – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+140/-180)
  Given that groundball batters face a disadvantage against groundball pitchers, Brandon Walter (47.9% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 2 GB hitters in the opposition’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Christian Walker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Christian Walker has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 12.1% seasonal rate to 28.6% in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (46.1% — 100th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Zack Littell will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against 8 opposing bats in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Yandy Diaz has seen a big increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.6-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 93.5-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Tampa Bay Rays have 4 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Josh Lowe, Jose Caballero, Christopher Morel, Jonathan Aranda).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 40 games (+9.40 Units / 20% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Run Line +1.5 (-180)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 37 games (+7.42 Units / 16% ROI)
• Victor Caratini – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+560/-1000)
  Victor Caratini has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games (+8.90 Units / 111% ROI)