Player Predictions Overview for Nationals vs Pirates – 4/13/2026

Washington Nationals

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Pittsburgh Pirates

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+185)
  Considering the 0.6 disparity between Cade Cavalli’s 3.85 ERA and his 4.46 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in MLB since the start of last season and figures to negatively regress going forward.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Luis Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Luis Garcia Jr. is penciled in 7th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  The Washington Nationals bullpen projects as the worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Out of all starters, Paul Skenes’s fastball velocity of 97.4 mph is in the 98th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Brandon Lowe’s average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 91-mph EV last year has fallen off to 82.7-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Ryan O’Hearn has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 10th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.