Player Analysis for Tigers vs Blue Jays - September 16, 2026

+115O/U: 8.5
(-105/-115)-135

Keider Montero – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+110/-145)
Keider Montero has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 8.6 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.
Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
Max Clark – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
Maxwell Clark has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.1-mph to 93.7-mph in the past 7 days.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Detroit’s 88.3-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in Major League Baseball: #24 overall.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Max Scherzer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
With a 1.27 deviation between Max Scherzer’s 6.78 K/9 and his 8.05 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in MLB this year as it relates to strikeouts and should positively regress in the future.
Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
Despite posting a .305 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has experienced some negative variance given the .063 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .368.
Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 85th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line -1.5 (+160)
The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 20 of their last 35 games (+5.60 Units / 13% ROI)
Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (-185)
The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 13 games (+11.30 Units / 64% ROI)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+165/-215)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+8.35 Units / 14% ROI)

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