Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
(-120/+100)-210
As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Busch Stadium on September 18, 2024, both teams find themselves in a National League Central matchup that carries more pride than promise. The Cardinals, sitting at 76-75, have had an average season, while the Pirates, with a 71-80 record, are facing a below-average year.
In their last outing on September 17, the Cardinals came out on top with a 3-1 victory against the Pirates. Sonny Gray, the Cardinals’ ace and ranked as the 23rd best starting pitcher in MLB, will take the mound. Despite his strong showing this year, with a 13-9 record and a 3.75 ERA, Gray’s peripherals suggest he’s been a bit unlucky. His 2.83 xFIP indicates he could perform even better. Gray’s ability to miss bats (30.2 K%) lines up well against a Pirates offense that ranks 5th in the league in strikeouts.
The Pirates counter with Jake Woodford, who has struggled with an 8.01 ERA, marking him among the worst starters this season. His last start was a blowout, allowing 7 runs over just 3 innings. Even though his xFIP of 4.97 suggests some bad luck, he’ll need to find his rhythm quickly against a Cardinals offense ranked 20th overall.
Offensively, the Cardinals will lean on the consistent power of Paul Goldschmidt and the recent hot streak of Jordan Walker, who boasts a .294 average and 2 homers over the past week. Meanwhile, the Pirates’ Bryan Reynolds has been a bright spot, maintaining a .280 average for the season and a .348 clip over the last week.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+160)Jake Woodford has experienced some negative variance in regards to his ERA this year; his 8.01 figure is a fair amount higher than his 5.15 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
- Joey Bart – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)Joey Bart has been lucky this year, posting a .353 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .305 — a .048 difference.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Joey Bart – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)Joey Bart pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.7% — 85th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Sonny Gray – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Sonny Gray’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2415 rpm) has been a considerable dropoff from than his seasonal rate (2515 rpm).Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
- Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)Lars Nootbaar has made big gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 10.2% seasonal rate to 23.1% in the past week’s worth of games.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- The St. Louis Cardinals (20.6 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 4th-least strikeout-prone batting order of all teams on the slate.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 68% ROI)
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-110)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 64 of their last 117 games (+8.72 Units / 6% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Rowdy Tellez has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 7 games (+8.40 Units / 111% ROI)