Picks and Betting Line for Padres vs Pirates Tuesday, August 6, 2024

San Diego Padres

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Pittsburgh Pirates

On August 6, 2024, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the San Diego Padres at PNC Park for the first game of their series. Both teams are in the thick of the season, with the Pirates sitting at 56-55, while the Padres boast a 61-52 record. The Pirates are projected to start Bailey Falter, who has struggled this season and ranks as the 216th best starting pitcher in MLB, while the Padres counter with the elite Dylan Cease, ranked 12th among pitchers.

In their last outings, the Pirates lost a close game to the Arizona Diamondbacks, 6-5, while the Padres cruised to a 10-2 victory over the Colorado Rockies. This stark contrast in performance highlights the Padres’ offensive prowess, as they rank 9th in MLB and lead the league with a .300 batting average. In contrast, the Pirates’ offense is struggling at 28th overall, making it difficult for them to capitalize on scoring opportunities.

Falter’s low strikeout rate of 16.6% could be a significant issue against a Padres lineup that has the fewest strikeouts in MLB. Meanwhile, Cease’s impressive 32.3% strikeout rate positions him well against a Pirates team that ranks 5th in strikeouts. The projections suggest that the Pirates may have a better chance of winning than the betting odds imply, with some value in betting on them as underdogs at +140.

With the game total set at a low 7.5 runs, the matchup appears to favor the Padres, but the Pirates may surprise if their offense can find a way to produce against Cease. As always in baseball, anything can happen, and this game promises to be an intriguing contest.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+155/-200)
  Compared to the average hurler, Dylan Cease has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an extra 10.6 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Manny Machado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Manny Machado has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.1-mph to 95-mph in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  The San Diego Padres bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bailey Falter – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+145/-190)
  Bailey Falter’s higher usage percentage of his fastball this season (65.4 compared to 52.8% last season) is not ideal considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  As it relates to his home runs, Isiah Kiner-Falefa has had positive variance on his side this year. His 14.5 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 6.1.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Joey Bart – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  In today’s game, Joey Bart is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.5% rate (83rd percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+145)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 67 games (+11.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-165)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 37 games (+10.30 Units / 22% ROI)
• Bryan De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+670/-1400)
  Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 24 games at home (+11.80 Units / 49% ROI)