Seattle Mariners
Athletics
(-110/-110)+125
On July 30, 2025, the Oakland Athletics will host the Seattle Mariners at Sutter Health Park for the third game of their series. The Mariners are currently positioned well in the standings with a record of 57-51, while the Athletics sit at 47-63, struggling through a disappointing season. The Athletics’ offensive prowess ranks them 8th in MLB, bolstered by a strong individual performance from their best hitter, who has been on fire with a .520 batting average over the past week, accumulating 13 hits and 4 home runs.
This matchup features a compelling pitching duel as well, with Oakland projected to start Jeffrey Springs, a left-handed pitcher with a 4.13 ERA and a Power Ranking of 186, indicating he’s among the lower tier of MLB starters. Springs has had a rough season, projecting to allow 3.1 earned runs and 5.3 hits today, which does not bode well against a potent Mariners offense that ranks 5th in home runs. Conversely, Bryan Woo will take the mound for Seattle. With an impressive 2.91 ERA and a Power Ranking of 19, Woo has been a standout performer, projecting to allow just 2.7 earned runs today.
Despite the Athletics’ struggles, their offense can capitalize on Woo’s tendency to give up hits. With the game total set at a high 9.5 runs, the Athletics’ offense may provide enough firepower to challenge the Mariners. The current betting line favors the Mariners, but the projections indicate that the Athletics could outpace expectations, making them an intriguing underdog in this matchup.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Bryan Woo – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+145/-190)Bryan Woo has averaged 19 outs per GS this year, grading out in the 97th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)Jorge Polanco has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (86% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (43.5% — 100th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Athletics Insights
- Jeffrey Springs – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)The Seattle Mariners have 6 hitters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage over Jeffrey Springs in today’s game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Nicholas Kurtz has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 99.1-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 93.8-mph EV.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The Athletics have done a favorable job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-hit balls. Their 17.4° mark is among the highest in baseball this year (#1 overall).Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 56 of their last 107 games (+7.20 Units / 6% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 89 games (+8.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Julio Rodriguez has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+9.70 Units / 35% ROI)