Picks and Betting Line for Dodgers vs Brewers Wednesday, July 9, 2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the Los Angeles Dodgers on July 9, 2025, both teams find themselves in competitive positions in the National League. The Dodgers, sporting a record of 56-37, are currently contending for the top spot, while the Brewers sit at 52-40, enjoying a solid season. This matchup is particularly crucial as it marks the third game in their series, with the previous game showcasing the Dodgers’ offensive prowess.

On the mound, the Brewers will send out Jose Quintana, who has had a mixed season with a 6-3 record and a solid ERA of 3.44. However, his underlying statistics suggest he may be due for a downturn, with a 4.72 xFIP indicating potential struggles ahead. Quintana’s high walk rate (9.7 BB%) could be exploited by the Dodgers, who have the 2nd most walks in MLB, presenting a challenge for the lefty.

In contrast, Tyler Glasnow will take the ball for the Dodgers. With a record of 1-0 and an average ERA of 4.50, Glasnow’s performance has been inconsistent, but he ranks as the 24th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. His projections suggest he will pitch 5.8 innings while allowing just 2.2 earned runs, showcasing his potential to keep the Brewers’ offense at bay.

Offensively, the Dodgers boast the 1st best lineup in MLB, leading in both team batting average and home runs. Meanwhile, the Brewers rank 16th in overall offense and 21st in home runs, which could spell trouble against a potent Dodgers pitching staff. The projections favor the Dodgers, but the Brewers’ strong bullpen, ranked 9th, may provide them with opportunities to capitalize late in the game. With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, this matchup promises to be an intriguing battle as both teams vie for crucial victories in their respective campaigns.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Tyler Glasnow – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Tyler Glasnow’s 94.5-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a significant 1.9-mph decrease from last season’s 96.4-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Shohei Ohtani has been hot of late, bashing 4 long-balls in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.
• Will Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Will Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Jose Quintana – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Jose Quintana (44.6% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 4 FB hitters in Los Angeles’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Typically, hitters like Christian Yelich who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Tyler Glasnow.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• It may be best to expect worse numbers for the Milwaukee Brewers offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 9th-luckiest offense in the majors this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 43 of their last 92 games (+12.85 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 72 games (+8.25 Units / 10% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+110/-140)
  Jackson Chourio has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 5 games (+5.10 Units / 80% ROI)