Picks and Betting Line for Blue Jays vs Rays Wednesday, September 17, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face the Toronto Blue Jays on September 17, 2025, the stakes are high, particularly for the Rays, who are looking to turn around a disappointing season with a record of 73-78. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are enjoying a stellar campaign at 89-62, having recently secured a narrow 6-5 victory over the Rays in their last matchup. This game marks the third in the series, with both teams eager to establish dominance.

On the mound, the Rays will send left-hander Ian Seymour, who has had a solid year with a 3.16 ERA and a 3-2 record. Despite his above-average ranking as the 84th best starting pitcher in MLB, he faces a tough challenge against the Blue Jays’ potent lineup. Seymour’s projections indicate he may struggle today, as he is expected to pitch just 5.0 innings and allow an average of 5.1 hits, which could be detrimental against a team that ranks 2nd in MLB offensively.

In contrast, the Blue Jays will counter with Kevin Gausman, a right-handed pitcher who recently threw a complete game shutout, showcasing his elite form. Gausman boasts a 3.44 ERA and a 10-10 record, with projections suggesting he will pitch 5.8 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs today.

The Rays’ offense ranks 14th overall but is bolstered by their 10th rank in batting average. However, they may struggle against Gausman, who excels at limiting walks and is facing a Rays lineup that does not walk often. With the game total set at a low 7.5 runs, the betting markets indicate a close contest, with the Rays holding a moneyline of +110. Given their current form and the quality of Gausman, the Blue Jays appear poised to capitalize on their advantages in this matchup.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+155/-200)
  Compared to the average hurler, Kevin Gausman has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an additional 5.4 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Addison Barger – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Addison Barger will probably have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Tampa Bay Rays has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen grades out as the 10th-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ian Seymour – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Ian Seymour’s high usage percentage of his secondary pitches (62.8% since the start of last season) figures to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Chandler Simpson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-270/+200)
  Toronto’s #1-ranked outfield defense of the day poses a formidable challenge for Chandler Simpson, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.3%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 5th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 34 games (+9.75 Units / 26% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-130)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 89 of their last 150 games (+21.64 Units / 11% ROI)
• Ernie Clement – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+160/-210)
  Ernie Clement has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 77% ROI)